Western oil multinationals in Nigeria, already reeling from kidnappings and sabotage, are bracing for more violence after the government told troops to use �force for force� in the Niger Delta.
The security crackdown ordered by President Olusegun Obasanjo has stoked fears of deeper disruptions to oil supplies from the world�s eighth largest exporter because oil executives say it may simply escalate the conflict.
�If the military goes on the offensive now there will be a bloodbath,� a senior foreign oil executive said, asking not be named.
Militant attacks have already forced foreign oil companies to cut Nigerian output by a quarter since February. The government�s approach until now has been to address some of the demands of the militants, promising much-needed development to the neglected delta region.
But a string of kidnappings of foreign workers around the southern oil city of Port Harcourt in the past two weeks, including one in a nightclub popular with expatriates, appears to have forced a change of tack.
�The armed forces and police have been directed to meet criminal elements in the Niger Delta �force for force�,� the presidency quoted Obasanjo as saying in a statement on Tuesday after a meeting with security chiefs and delta politicians.
Previous military assaults in the delta, involving helicopter gunships and patrol boats equipped with machine guns, have brought accusations of human rights violations and inflamed tensions in vast wetlands region further.
The latest wave of violence has coincided with a series of suspected political assassinations, which analysts say could herald a wider break-down of law and order across Africa�s most populous nation.
Militancy, riots and assassinations are the dark side of political life in Nigeria, which returned to democracy in 1999 after three decades of almost unbroken military dictatorship.
Elections next April are set to mark the first time in the country�s coup-prone history that one elected president hands over to another.
�Oil companies do not expect any significant improvement in security at least until after elections next year,� said Kevin Rosser of Control Risks consultancy in London.
Many residents of the Niger Delta feel cheated out of the vast wealth being pumped from their land, but the situation is complex because much of the money intended for development is stolen by state officials.
Some of the violence against oil companies has been instigated by groups campaigning for more local autonomy over the delta�s oil resources, a wildly popular message in the creeks that are home to about 25mn people.
But most of the recent kidnappings have been motivated by the prospect of ransom, or jobs and benefits for communities where the oil companies operate.
�We are not talking about freedom fighters here. Just people who want a slice of the cake because they have seen others enjoying it,� said John Adeyemi Adeleke, an independent Lagos-based analyst. �They have no intention of killing expatriates, but any heavy-handed approach by the military could risk producing the first expatriate fatality,� he added.
Oil installations located deep in the mangrove-lined creeks are often the first in the firing line when violence starts.
The attacks that forced Royal Dutch Shell to withdraw from its oilfields in the western delta in February were triggered by an assault by the Nigerian army on what it said were barges involved in stealing oil from pipelines near Shell�s Forcados export terminal. Community leaders said innocent civilians were killed.
Despite a recent upgrading of military hardware at other key oil export terminals in the delta, multinationals including Chevron, ENI, Total and Exxon all have fields that are vulnerable to attack. � Reuters
Aug172006