NIGERIA’S future, especially next year’s presidential elections, has continued to feature widely in official and diplomatic circles in both the United States (U.S.) and Britain.
However, both western governments have resolved to adopt different strategies to achieve the same goal: frustrate the alleged third term ambition of President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The Guardian learnt that while the U.S. has decided to adopt a direct, open and frontal campaign to dissuade Obasanjo from seeking a third term even if the constitution is amended, Britain has resolved to adopt quiet diplomacy to achieve the same end.
But the sources say that international pressure on President Obasanjo has become intensified with the declaration by his South African counterpart Thabo Mbeki that he would not seek any such constitutional amendment to enable him to run for a third term in 2009.
Mbeki’s declaration is being interpreted as a powerful diplomatic resource next to a smoking gun to forestall the alleged plot by Obasanjo. While the Nigerian leader has refused to directly answer questions put to him on the alleged bid, Mbeki did exactly the opposite after a section of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) made such a call.
Just last week the South African National Civics Organisation, known to be a pro- Mbeki wing of the ANC, called on the party to use its control of the country’s parliament to change the constitution to allow Mbeki a third term.
Observers argue that the whole idea of having Mbeki respond quickly and directly to the proposal might not be unconnected to plans by significant sections of the international community, especially among African leaders, and the British government to send an “important and unmistakable signal” to President Obasanjo.
A diplomatic source told The Guardian that the disagreement between Britain and the U.S. on the matter is only on the method and not the objective of stopping the alleged third term project. Some forces in the British government are even said to be convinced that Obasanjo will not run for a third term, but are concerned at his refusal to categorically dissuade the growing insinuations and moves supporting a third term bid.
It was for this reason that the British decided to adopt quiet diplomacy and decided to take an “incremental approach” in dishing out specific tactics to subtly encourage Obasanjo to relinquish power next year, whatever happens.
Even then, British diplomats assured their U.S. and other international counterparts that they are prepared to immediately react with a clear disagreement in case Obasanjo goes ahead to announce that he would seek a third term.
The concern of U.S. and other international groups regarding the British approach is that “the quiet diplomacy approach does not enunciate a clear deterrence to stop Obasanjo” and this is why the Americans in particular continue to openly declare their strong objection to a third term effort.
The official position of the U.S. government on the alleged plot is so manifestly clear that even Obasanjo’s best friends and allies in the U.S. like Ambassador Andrew Young have clearly avoided making any public statements about 2007 or the alleged ambition.
At the United Nations, the issue is not on the table as it may be interpreted as an unwarranted involvement in Nigeria’s internal and political affairs, but very top UN leaders and envoys are known to have personally reached out to the Nigerian president on the issue.
Mbeki on South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) television programme after delivering a traditional national address, said: “For a long time, the ANC has taken a stand not to alter the constitution even with two-thirds majority support in government.”
BusinessDay, a leading paper in South Africa in its reaction, said: “Mbeki’s insistence that he will retire when his term ends lays to rest doubts about his intentions after he told the nation last year he was available to continue as ANC president when the party elects a new leader next year… Mbeki has staked his presidency on his leadership of the continent and has been vocal against African presidents holding on to power for too long.”
There are those who think the issue of Mbeki running again in 2009 being brought up this early – three years ahead – may have to do with South Africa’s clear rejection of the sit-tight African leaders syndrome, an ailment that is supposed to be eradicated in a new Africa, which incidentally both Mbeki and Obasanjo have been championing at international fora in the last few years.
Meanwhile, the Americans have continued to be outspoken using both official and unofficial sources to send a message to Obasanjo that a third term for him would be opposed by the U.S.
Last week Thursday during a Congressional briefing of the U.S. Select Committee on National Intelligence, the U.S. Intelligence Czar, John Negroponte, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN and later to Iraq named Nigeria and Sudan as two countries in Africa that had continued to bother the Americans.
Negroponte, who is known to be very close to the U.S. President George W. Bush also said: “The most important election on the African horizon will be held in spring 2007 in Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country and largest oil producer. The vote has the potential to reinforce a democratic trend away from military rule or it could lead to major disruption in a nation suffering frequent ethno-religious violence, criminal activity, and rampant corruption.”
According to him, “speculation that President Obasanjo will try to change the constitution so he can seek a third term in office is raising political tensions and, if proven true, threatens to unleash major turmoil and conflict. Such chaos in Nigeria could lead to disruption of oil supply, secessionist moves by regional governments, major refugee flows, and instability elsewhere in West Africa.”