The first national census for more than ten years is set to take place from 21-25 March.
Although unrest is possible ahead of the controversial poll, this is unlikely to lead to widespread or sustained violence.
The authorities will step up security in the run-up to the event. The census period will effectively be considered a public holiday, with many businesses expected to remain closed.
People are advised to anticipate disruption to business operations and to avoid any protests or large gatherings as a precaution. During the five-day census, travel outside residents’ local government wards is likely to be restricted and you may wish to defer non-essential travel for this period.
International air travel is unlikely be affected, though you would be advised to confirm schedules with air operators ahead of the census.
You should also anticipate disruption to overland travel because of time restrictions during the count.
During the census, persons are likely to be unable to travel to work and large businesses will be closed; it remains unclear if special dispensation has been given to firms operating in particular industries. In any case, companies should implement business contingency plans assuming that they will be unable to operate for this period.
You should anticipate security forces roadblocks and checkpoints, even after counting hours. The government plans to deploy security forces and riot police around areas particularly vulnerable to ethnic and religious unrest, following reports that there are plans to organise student demonstrations during the count. You should restrict your movements and are advised to stock up on essential supplies ahead of the count. Most counts during the census are likely to take place from the early hours of the morning to late afternoon and you are advised to comply with advice from census officials.
National census
The country’s last census was conducted in 1991, under the military government of Gen Ibrahim Babangida. Following that count, the country’s population was estimated at 86.5m, with an annual growth rate of more than 3% since then. Current estimates put Nigeria’s population at more than 126m. The forthcoming count will be conducted by the National Population Commission (NPC) and will employ an estimated 20,000 officials. It was originally scheduled to take place from November to December 2005, but was postponed by President Olusegun Obasanjo because of delays in obtaining materials for the exercise. Despite the economic importance of certain indicators, questions of religion and ethnicity will not form part of the census. The National Council of States (NCS), which comprises the country’s 36 state governors and former heads of state, decided in 2005 that the two categories would be excluded from the census after Kaduna state governor Ahmed Makarfi threatened to boycott the count.
North-South tensions
The NPC’s exclusion of both categories from the data collection suggests that the postponement may have been related to controversy surrounding the collection of religious and ethnic data. Political tensions over the census emerged between the northern and southern political blocs in 2005 following northern leaders’ opposition to the inclusion of both indicators. This highlighted the political importance of the numerical strength of one ethnic or religious grouping over another, which would have significant implications for the perceived balance of power within the country. Since ethnic and religious affiliation are used in determining recruitment to the armed forces, civil service and other political institutions to reflect Nigeria’s cultural balance, various groups will have large stakes in the process. The north has traditionally claimed numerical dominance over the south, which in turn had threatened to disrupt the count if both categories were excluded. They are adamant that the arid north should logically be less populated than the south.
The linkage between population size and revenue allocation represents a strong undercurrent in the census, given that federal funds to states are distributed on the basis of population size. Although the absence of ethnic and religion indicators from the census should allay tensions, local politicians or state governors – who would have a clear political interest in the outcome of the census – may seek to mobilise disaffected groups to disrupt the count. Ethnic groups opposed to the NPC’s exclusion of religion and ethnicity from the census could still launch a boycott of the process, which could seriously undermine the final results.