The American Occupy movement started on September 17, 2011, with a few dozen demonstrators who attempted to pitch tents in front of the New York Stock Exchange. The group is protesting social and economic inequality caused by corporate greed, and the influence of corporation particularly banks and their lobbyist, over the government.
The group is sending a message to the banks and bankers whom they blame for the collapse of the economy. The movement has gathered momentum, spread to other cities of America, and to cities around the world. Interestingly, the movement was initiated by a Canadian activist group and was inspired by the Arab Spring and Spanish 15-M Movement.
For two weeks, there’s been a bit of a buzz on Twitter among Nigerians suggesting an “occupy” protest at home. The flames seem to have died on arrival, dousing a great opportunity; it would seem, for the social networking platform to once again be seen as the starting point for a desperately needed people’s revolution.
In spite of the devastation that the ruling and elite class have done to the economy and social fabric of this country, and a system that works for less than 1 per cent of the population, there are many reasons why Nigeria may still be many years away from witnessing a far reaching people’s revolution.
Nobody or movement has every truly been united in purpose and vision. There are always pockets of ideologies that sway from the unified position and disagreements within the body on methods and what to focus on. So, expecting perfect unison in a protest movement of such magnitude is unrealistic. However, a successful people’s revolt has to have a unified purpose, which means a unified “enemy”, “outcome”, and key performance indices.
For instance, in Egypt, the enemy was now ex-president Hosni Mubarak; the outcome was get him out of office; and key performance indices was, in addition, a total and complete change of leadership, which meant that the protest continued even after Mubarak’s deputy took over. Nothing but a complete change of government was going to cut it.
Right now, what we are seeing in the public social media discussion is a group of people who aren’t certain where and what they want to “occupy”. Abuja or Nigeria? Many use the word “occupy” when what they are thinking about is something similar to the “Arab Springs”. Occupy is targeted at banks and bankers represented by Wall Street and their lobbyist friends who are perceived to be holding 99 per cent of Americans to ransom and not a protest about Obama’s government, whereas the “Arab Spring” protest were about toppling the long-serving and hugely unpopular governments of the Arab world.
Last weekend, a prominent occupy supporter film maker, Michael Moore, called for Obama to “arrest the bankers”. Which bankers? What are their names? Arrest them for what? Under what law? The US President doesn’t arrest people or order their arrest, in any case. Such a call just shows what’s troubling about the Occupy Wall Street movement – the lack of any clear targets or deliverables. It’s a great channel for the people’s anger and nothing else, it seems. The Occupy Wall Street movement at the moment is battling with answers to “where do we go from here?”. I am curious to see how this all turns out.
One key feature – which has also been touted by the organisers as its strength – of the Occupy Wall Street movement is that it has no leaders. In recent times, successful people’s revolutions have had at their centre citizens who were not focused on glory or had unspoken political ambition.
The call for an occupy movement in Nigeria has been marred by the appearance of Nasir el Rufai as a pseudo godfather. El Rufai is a political party stalwart and going by recent US diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks, a key player in the hugely unpopular Obasanjo government. As a towering figure in General Buhari’s Congress for Progress (CPC), any movement formed around him would turn off apolitical people, who would form the critical mass for a people’s revolution, and members and sympathisers of other political parties.
Recently, word on the twitter street is that El Rufai was the financier for the Save Nigeria Group (SNG), which was a civil society movement that emerged in 2010 the wake of the uncertainty concerning the health of late President Yar’Adua. SNG was led by Pastor Tunde Bakare who was later to emerge as the vice presidential candidate for General Buhari in the April general elections.
These curious connections and details, plus the worrisome legal battles on corruption charges brought against El Rufai by the EFCC, draw grim questions to the motives of a movement which rallies round such a polarizing figure. A feeler from civil society groups is “everyone is wiser now; we can’t be used to further personal agendas anymore.”
Very few people think it’s time to die for Nigeria.
You’ve got to guarantee safety of the people. Few will show up for a protest that could witness a parade of armed mobile police men or worse, soldiers, shooting into the crowd. What’s the track record for law enforcement treatment of civil protests in Nigeria?
Walk against Rape, an apolitical protest organized by an NGO was frustrated by the state in Septmeber. What do we think would happen with a movement that would be perceived as aiming at overthrowing the government of the day?
The current tense security climate, especially in the federal capital, is a serious factor to consider. With unrealised threats from Boko Haram and counter threats from Niger Delta militancy groups, are citizens going to enlist to a campaign to register dissatisfaction with a system that is long overdue for fixing and by so doing put their lives at risk?
It looks unlikely.