Throughout the long years of colonialism and military rule in Nigeria, democratic aspiration was a constant and powerful driver of political change. Military governments derived their legitimacy in large part from the promise that they were preparing the nation for a return to improved democratic rule, and the regimes that reneged on that promise soon fell.
This fundamental public support for democracy has continued through the civilian governments since independence. Although Nigeria is currently enjoying its longest period of electoral democracy since independence, the Fourth Republic has seen the quality of its elections decline progressively with each general election since 1999.
Shortly after assuming office in 2007, President Yar’Adua acknowledged flaws in the electoral system and appointed an ERC. The ERC submitted its report to the President in late 2008. However, the report is yet to be submitted officially to the National Assembly or to be made public. Following completion of the ERC’s work, federal authorities, including the Attorney General and the National Assembly, have taken a number of election reform initiatives. At the time of writing, however, none of the ERC recommendations or any other reform initiatives have yet been enacted into law.
There are various challenging factors in holding elections in Nigeria. One relates to the size of the electorate and of the country. Nigeria has 36 states, 774 local governments, and an electorate of over 60 million voters. There is also limited infrastructure. Nigeria has a tremendously challenging political and social landscape with complex ethnic, religious and geographical divides. The electoral environment is characterised as violent and corrupt.
Another important challenge is economic. The World Bank estimates that 92% of Nigerians live on less than US$2 per day, with nearly 70% living on a dollar or less, all in a context where the nation earned US$70 billion in oil revenue in 2008 alone. This widespread extreme poverty amid massive wealth concentrated in the hands of a few creates a context where political elites enjoy enormous advantages over the impoverished public, and where voters and other stakeholders are vulnerable to financial inducements and intimidation.
Gender equality has been recognised by the Nigerian government as a prerequisite for sustainable development and there is commitment in various international treaties to taking specific positive action to promote participative governance and the equal participation of women in political life. However, lack of gender equality in Nigeria continues to be a fundamental social barrier to credible elections. Nigeria’s National Assembly is comprised of only 7.5% female members (compared to the 18.2% regional average for Africa). Research conducted among female candidates shows “the systematic elimination of women in … general elections through a well-orchestrated process of manipulation and pre-determination of the outcome of the electoral process.” Issues of harassment and female candidates lacking financial resources and political party support are reported, as is the substitution of female candidates. Furthermore female candidates are less likely to receive coverage from public and private media during election campaigning. Gender inequality is also reflected elsewhere in the electoral process, with women being found to be 10% less likely to vote than men across all age groups.
Since 1999 Nigeria’s development partners have been active in supporting elections. Donor programmes have collaborated with a wide range of Nigerian stakeholders; supported institutional reforms necessary to facilitate the electoral process; and provided assistance to strengthen accountability mechanisms to improve electoral outcomes.