Change is coming to Nigeria. The demography of Nigeria’s voting population is changing. A younger population is taking an active interest and knows it can be empowered to have a significant influence on the structure and function of Nigeria’s government.
In 2003, three of Insider Weekly magazine’s editors were detained by Nigeria’s security forces over an article they wrote that was very critical of the Presidency. Insider Weekly, known for its criticism of the president and government officials, was again raided in 2004 and two staff members detained by Nigeria’s State Security Services.
Today almost every newspaper and magazine has daily articles that are critical of the president and his ministers but the journalists are not detained for such acts. Nigeria has moved a long way towards freedom of the press and freedom of expression.
Electoral freedoms are expanding and although Nigerians in the Diaspora may not be able to vote in the coming election President Jonathan made it clear this week that he would pursue legislation that would enable the Diaspora to vote in the 2015 elections.
The Diaspora lobby is generally well educated and living in mature democracies so it has a higher expectation as to what the government of Nigeria can deliver under a democratic system of government. The Diaspora is becoming an increasingly vocal and significant group that no presidential candidate can afford to ignore.
Nigeria like most of the world is being swept by continuous waves of ever increasing sophistication in communication systems and services. Communication gives people information and, more importantly, its gives them a voice. Communication changes power distribution and this fundamental dynamic is changing politics in Nigeria. This point is generally lost on most of the old guard who still try to conduct politics as has been done for decades with strong-arm tactics, stuffing ballot boxes with fake ballot papers, intimidating rival candidates with armed thugs and bribing electoral officers.
Some of the old political warhorses will try to destabilise regions of Nigeria in an attempt to show that President Jonathan has lost control of the nation’s security and therefore should not be elected. This ploy will only work if Nigerians allow it to do so. Others will use regional instability as a screen for electoral fraud.
This week President Jonathan took an unexpected step. He announced that if he wins election in 2011 he will not stand for re-election in 2015. This announcement will go a long way to heading off potential instability precipitated by the usual election process that has been hallmarked by recruiting gangs, creating violence to screen election fixing and forcefully intimidating rival candidates.
President Jonathan said he would concentrate on providing infrastructure in critical areas of the economy especially security, power, education, roads and health. As he noted when questioned about electricity generation capacity, four years is enough for anyone in power to make significant improvement and that will be the test of his presidency if he is elected.
Whoever is elected to the presidential office in 2011 must certainly address deficiencies in infrastructure but must also address the critical economic imbalance between North and South. This is vital in any plan to bring sustained stability to Nigeria. This imbalance is a major factor in the security issues that Nigeria currently faces.
The two obvious areas for development in the North are agriculture and solid minerals. Agriculture can be ramped up quickly and is a large employer of the northern workforce. In contrast solid minerals will take several years to develop, as the early years require considerable exploration to define a commercial ore body. The likely returns from solid minerals could well outstrip returns from agriculture. In Australia it is the nation’s minerals sector that has largely buffeted Australia from the global financial crisis. Nigeria could equally have significant mineral wealth as yet untapped in the North.
Nigeria cannot continue to rely on the oil wealth of the South. Nigeria continues to float on oil and that single source of income has become an enormous vulnerability for the nation. This easy source of income on which the government relies so heavily provides militant groups with an obvious leverage point on government revenue. The geographic spread of oil production means the government will always be hard pressed to provide adequate protection to facilities.
Despite the fabulous resource wealth of the South shocking poverty persists and local citizens eke out an existence thus providing a rallying point to legitimise any militant group. If there is massive mineral wealth developed in the North would the result be any different to the situation we now find in the South?
Will Nigeria tolerate more of the same and trade democracy for kleptocracy where fabulous wealth is installed in the hands of a few in a system that has required little if any accountability?
The current trend to increasing public accountability of government and the powerful elite is being assisted by rapid advances in public communication systems that seem irreversible.
The winds of change are blowing across Nigeria.
Stephen Davis