For the second time since 1999, the rumoured death of a PDP�s presidential candidate gripped the nation causing serious concern. First, it was President Obasanjo, then as president elect, after his victory on February 27th 1999 was rumoured to have died. The spread of this rumour led to spontaneous violence in some parts of the country, especially in Lagos and parts of South West. It took the presence of security agents to bring some order to the streets. Eventually, it emerged that Obasanjo was hale and healthy.
On Wednesday, just like it happened in 1999, the nation was in suspense over the health condition of Umaru Yar�Adua, the PDP presidential candidate. However, the difference between Obasanjo�s situation and the events of yesterday, is that while Obasanjo was seen as healthy, and could possibly have died as a result of the conspiracy of some persons who did not want power to shift to South west, the Yar�Adua condition was not particularly surprising, even though the uncertainty it generated was no less distressing. The other difference between these two examples, was that while Obasanjo�s death hoax took everyone completely by surprised, Yar�Adua� since his emergence on December 16th after the PDP convention has had to contend with the rumour over his ill health. It was put out in the public that he was of poor health, and should not have been picked, his detractors held.
Due to the persistence of this rumour, Yar�Adua had one on occasion challenged his traducers to the game of squash, as a way of proving that he was strong. � I am fit and healthy, if those who say I am sick can play 12 straight sets with me, they are welcome.� No one is known to have taken him up on this challenge. Still, speculation persisted concerning his poor health, forcing President Obasanjo to retort at one point, that his protegee was fit enough, tongue lashing those who say the man was sick. According to Obasanjo, � I know all about Umar�s ailment and it has disappeared since 2001. It was miracle. So those calling him a sick man are the ones who are sick. After all, only God can tell who is sick or not. I wonder how somebody can open is mouth and say that a human being created by God is a sick man. I am sure he has proven to those who say he cannot stand stress that all that is not true.� Despite Obasanjo�s optimistic tone, Yar�Adua�s sudden medical attention in the middle of a presidential campaign, have dented the image, he wanted to paint of the Katsina governor.
Hence, Wednesday�s rumour about Alhaji Yar�Adua�s death confirmed in most people�s view their long held suspicion about his poor health. If the PDP national secretary, Chief Ojo Maduekwe, thought his announcement would be taken as routine by the media and left at that, the headlines that came out the following day showed the media just like the rest of the society are in deep distrust over the actual health status of Governor Yar�Adua.
Some reports suggested that Yar�Adua collapsed before he was flown aboard, raising the specter of a major health crisis. Public suspicion was not assuaged by his departure to Germany. While the public was mulling over what to make of the health concerns of Governor Yar�Adua, rumoured spread like wild fire that he had died. However, for reporters confirming the veracity of this story was difficult. No one was sure whether the man was dead or not. Conflicting information flowed in from all sides. Text messages and verbal contacts did not lift the suspicion that something was seriously amiss.
Contacts who should have accurate information on the health status of Yar�Adua, were divided on what they know. Some say they had heard the man was dead, but could not be too certain of how it happened. Others maintained that they had established close contact with inner circle, who had assured them that though Yar�Adua was critically ill, he has since left the danger list. With unconfirmed information it was difficult to establish the proper frame work in discussing the transition programme without Yar�Adua.
Whatever was the case, telephone lines of many reporters was buzzing incessantly from anxious public, who wanted to know the facts. With nothing more concrete, the rumour mill hardened that the man was actually dead. It was common to see people either in offices, or in public places discussing the situation. The opinion over the death of Yar�Adua varied. Some say he was killed by Obasanjo, as a way to foster his third term agenda. In blaming Obasanjo, those who fault him say his choice of Yar�Adua, was wrong, wondering how he could have settled for the Katsina governor, when it was clear that the man had long been ill, and hence was in no position to exert himself in what proved to be an ardous electoral campaign. Some other view claiming expertise on medical knowledge of Yar�Adua health, say he suffered from renal failure, and had been going for dialysis overseas. They say a man with such health condition should not have been subjected to the rigour of campaign as Obasanjo had pressed into, by offering him the presidential ticket of the PDP. Others blamed Yar�Adua for accepting to be on the ticket, when he knew his poor health would impede.
To buttress their point further, those who hold this view say in the PDP campaigns which Yar�Adua had appeared, he had looked pale, as a result of his ill health. His absence in the Lagos kick off campaign was the final confirmation of his troubled health, they argued. Arising from this, they said that his �death� was as a result of the pressure he had been under. On the other hand, just as those who feel that Yar�Adua�s �death� was no surprise and the manipulation of evil men, who did not want the man to retire to his village; they recalled that throughout his tenure as governor, Yar�Adua was a known recluse, who spent most of his time running his state, and did not bother to attend such functions like the Council of state meetings, NEC meeting of his party, and even the governors forum. Just as the rumour was swirling, the other view that proved to be correct kept insisting that Governor Yar�Adua ill, was no longer in the danger list as is being rumoured.
In all this, the biggest concern of many people was the implication on the transition. Is INEC going to shift the election as stipulated in section 36:37. (1) of 2006 electoral act, which states that, � If after the time for the delivery of nomination paper and before the commencement of the poll, a nominated candidate dies, the Chief National Electoral Commissioner or the Resident Electoral Commissioner shall, being satisfied of the fact of the death, countermand the poll in which the deceased candidate was to participate and the Commission shall appoint some other convenient date for the election.� What does the term convenient mean, and how would INEC interpret it? Will this not threaten the handover date. Is the Constitution not going to be breached if INEC gives a liberal interpretation that exceeds May 29th ?
Some other opinion say that Yar�Adua�s rumoured death serves Obasanjo right, as it has finally exposed his plot to rule Nigeria from Ota farm by foisting a sick man as president.
Overall, the level of suspicion and passion that was building up could have, as some observers maintained, impacted on the stability of the transition with the attendant ruination of the credibility of the electoral process. Even now some say, Yar�Adua has a mountain to climb to demonstrate to cynical Nigerians that his health problem was over, and as Obasanjo claims, a miracle had indeed cured him of it.