President Goodluck Jonathan has almost finished naming his new administration, a team that has pledged to forge ahead with an ambitious reform agenda but may well disappoint.
Jonathan, who was sworn in for his first full term on May 29 after winning April elections, needs a stellar team to come good on his promises to boost job creation, unlock the world’s seventh-largest gas reserves and turnaround the abysmal state of the electric power sector.
The retention of many ministers with poor records and some controversial appointments left few spaces for genuine reformers, although the inclusion of former World Bank Managing Director Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was met with widespread optimism.
She is expected to become Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Minister of Finance, an expanded version of the role she held between 2003 and 2006 when she successfully negotiated Nigerian debt relief.
Her inclusion brings credibility to Jonathan’s reform ambitions.
Confusion over a plan to change the constitution to make presidents and governors have only one, longer term has raised suspicion among the Nigerian public about Jonathan’s motives and threatens to distract the government’s focus.
Almost daily attacks by radical Islamist sect Boko Haram have rapidly replaced militant raids on oil facilities in the southern Niger Delta as the main security threat in Africa’s most populous nation.
POLICY AND REFORM
Jonathan showed signs at the end of the last administration that he is willing to push ahead with much-needed policy changes. He signed a bill to create a sovereign wealth fund, meant to better manage the OPEC member’s long-squandered oil savings and agreed an amended $29 billion budget.
Although the final figure was higher than the outgoing government wanted, Jonathan did manage to negotiate down the increased spending plans parliament proposed, which on paper will keep sub-Saharan Africa’s second biggest economy just within a 3 percent deficit target.
But the credibility of proper legislation implementation is being brought into question by the recently signed into law minimum wage bill, after labour unions said the government and private sector employers failed to pay up.
Most major unions, including in the oil and gas sector, have threatened to strike if a resolution isn’t reached.
There remain several pieces of legislation that have been pending for years but have never seen the light of day.
Both houses of parliament have passed a healthcare act six years in the making and it awaits Jonathan’s signature.
If passed it will be the first major piece of legislation Jonathan has signed since the election and will raise optimism about the passage of more important laws to come.
Arguably the most crucial piece of legislation for Nigeria’s economy remains in deadlock. The wide-ranging Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) faces further debate by a new parliament and is seen as unlikely to pass this year.
Billions of dollars of investment by oil firms is on hold until there is clarity over the bill, which will redefine the fiscal and legal framework for projects, dashing Nigeria’s hopes of a significant rise in oil output in the coming years.
What to watch:
— Passage of the health bill
— Parliament debating PIB
— Strike action by oil workers
NATIONAL SECURITY
Shootings and attacks with homemade bombs by Boko Haram have been an almost daily occurrence in the remote northeast of Nigeria in recent months and a major offensive by the military Joint Task Force (JTF) has brought a new security threat to the region.
Amnesty International said Nigerian security forces killed at least 23 people in the northeastern city of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, in retaliation for a bomb attack blamed on Boko Haram.
JTF have been accused of brutalisation, unlawful arrests and killing innocent civilians during reprisal attacks.
The JTF say incidents have been isolated but at least five members have been arrested. Resentment towards the military in Borno threatens to build support for Boko Haram, especially amongst the disillusioned, unemployed youths.
At least six people were killed in renewed clashes between Christian and Muslim youths in Plateau state, central Nigeria, this month.
Hundreds were killed in religious attacks earlier this year in Plateau and neighbouring states in Nigeria’s “Middle Belt”, where the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south meet.
What to watch
— More violence in the “Middle Belt”
— Further bomb attacks in the north or the capital
— Efforts to negotiate with or arrest Boko Haram members
OIL AND GAS
Since an amnesty in 2009 attacks on oil facilities have been rare but a group of youths briefly shutdown a Shell facility last month which impacted some production.
Nigeria is producing over 2 million barrels per day of crude oil but investment has dried up because of the slow passage of the PIB and reserves are not being replenished.
The government has laid out plans to unlock the country’s vast gas reserves which could help in ending the chronic power shortages which are a major brake on the economy.
The central bank governor and other key officials have said that a necessary step in reforming the downstream sector will be removing fuel subsidies, a hugely controversial subject for most Nigerians.
The public see fuel subsidies as the only benefit they get from living in an oil-rich country and the issue of fuel price increases has in the past prompted nationwide strike action.
— Further unrest in the Niger Delta
— Government talking on fuel subsidies