No policy initiative of President Goodluck Jonathan has excited as much public interest and the imagination of the international community as the launch on August 26, 2010, of the Road Map for the Power Sector Reform, a compendium of short-, medium- and long-term measures– as well as the costs and timelines—to provide robust electricity in Nigeria. Nine months into the Road Map, the public expectations seem justified. There has been a substantial improvement in power supply across the country. Nigeria now generates 4,000Megawatts. Though this is only 10% the 40,000MW produced by South Africa, it is the greatest quantum of power ever generated in our history. In other words, Nigeria has, under Jonathan’s leadership, generated an additional 1,000MW in just one year. This is impressive by every account.
Yet, the improved power supply we have noticed in the last two months in particular does not owe to only increased power generation. There are two critical factors at play here which are often ignored in popular discourse, namely, system stability and adequate attention now paid to other critical sections of the power supply chain such as transmission and distribution, to say nothing about marketing or revenue generation. System stability may sound abstract to non-technical people or to those outside the power sector, but in elementary terms it refers typically to a situation where the biggest power generating unit in a given environment is set aside as a back-up or reserve margin, that is, it comes up only when there is an unusually high demand or a disruption in the quantum of power ordinarily given out, and the disruption is consequently corrected within a split second. Public electricity supply, as a result, remains stable. Until recently Nigeria used to experience system failures at least twice a month, with all the severe consequences for equipment, plants and appliances and even the people running the system because there was no reserve margin at all. But we have recorded only two system collapses this year. This means that power supply to many Nigerian cities and towns and communities is now stable, a log leap from the days of wild fluctuations. Quite a number of places now receive up to 18 hours of daily supply. The situation can only get better.
The other issue often overlooked in public commentary on the improved supply in Nigeria is that this is the first time in our recent history that considerable attention has been devoted to parts of the power supply chain other than generation. Right from the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency, Nigerians have been made to believe that the only solution to our perennial power crisis is to dramatically increase the quantum of power produced in the country. Hence, public discourse has been abuzz with “5,000MW this year”, “10,000MW next year”, etc. But experience has eloquently demonstrated that this is wrong. Last August, for instance, 3,800MW was generated, then the largest quantum of power ever produced in our nation, but no one felt it. In fact, it lasted for a few minutes. The system collapsed. Why? Because the transmission infrastructure was too weak, too dilapidated and too old to wheel this quantum of power from Egbin, Sapele, Kainji, Afam, Jeba and other generation facilities to different parts of the country. It is, therefore, reassuring that Jonathan has approved the installation of the Super Grade transmission facility in Nigeria.
The distribution network has not been wonderful, either. Basic things like distribution transformers, feeder pillars and cables have been neglected over the years. Still, without distribution facilities we cannot have light in our homes, offices and factories. No less important is the marketing arm, which provides revenues for the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). It is gratifying to learn the other day from the media that the Presidential Task Force on Power (PTFP) is leading the PHCN to recover billions of naira owed it across the country by consumers, especially the federal and state governments and their agencies. The PHCN, as a business, should be as self sufficient as possible by effectively and efficiently relying on its internally generated revenue.
So much is currently going on in different sections of the power supply chain. Some parts are being replaced, some repaired, some upgraded, new ones added and some others are being modernised. About 3000 distribution transformers, for instance, have been installed in recent times throughout the country. Ironically, these works have in many instances meant cessation of power supply to affected areas for several hours, days and even weeks as the case may be. PHCN officers seldom explain to the people affected, let alone apologise for the power interruptions.
Things are, indeed, looking up. Power generation will jump to 5,000MW by the end of this year from the present 4,000MW. It will climb to 6,000MW next year, to 10,000MW in 2013 and 14,000MW in 2014. No wonder that buoyed by the business prospect in the power, as many as 331 firms took part in the Expressions of Interest (EoIs) when the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) called for them as the first step in the privatization of 17 PHCN successor companies. No less impressive is the calibre of the firms, which include Essar of India, a $15billion company which last October at the Presidential Retreat at State House, Abuja, pledged to invest a whopping $2b in our power sector if we maintain the reform momentum; Tata, also of India, which recently acquired the world famous Rolls Royce of the United Kingdom; Manitoba Electricity Corporation of Canada; and the Israeli Electricity Company. Not to be forgotten is NRECA , the world’s largest electricity distribution company which accounts for 10% of the one million megawatts produced in the whole of the United States. These international firms, apparently, do not want to miss out on Nigeria as Vodacom did in 2001when it refused to invest in the Nigerian GSM telephony market, only to bite its fingers endlessly when it saw how smaller companies like the MTN, Glo and Airtel were cleaning out, as the Americans would say. Return on investment in Nigeria remains among the highest in the world.
With President Jonathan receiving an overwhelming mandate in the April 16 election, he has to accelerate the pace of the power sector reform. The privatisation of all 17 PHCN generation and distribution companies has to be concluded this year. Good a thing that labour issues are all but concluded. PHCN employees have received N57b for the monetisation benefits denied them since 2003. Over N147b has been provided in the budget since last year for the prompt payment of benefits when government’s stake in the PHCN successor companies is diluted considerably this year. A substantial percentage of shares is being reserved for them so that they can become part owners of the PHCN successor firms. The issue of thousands of PHCN employees remaining casual workers for years, which is unacceptable, is being sorted out. With the private sector now driving public electricity supply, more and more people will be employed in the power sector and they will enjoy pay and conditions of service comparable to what their colleagues in the MTN, Airtel and Glo enjoy. What is more, they will work with state of the art facilities, apart from having the experience of travelling abroad from time to time.
The Presidential Task Force on Power has inspired the confidence of all Nigerians. Could have done so if it been headed by a professional politician, rather than a technocrat of international renown, Prof Bart Nnaji? Given the critical nature of power in Nigeria, there is no justification for upholding the bizarre tradition where the Ministry of Power has always been headed by greenhorns in the power sector, a tradition that makes the ministry underperform from year to year. Jonathan should chart a new direction.