The creeping collapse of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and one of the world’s largest oil producers, would threaten the interests of the United States and the international community in the region, a veteran U.S. diplomat has cautioned.
The warning from former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, comes three months in run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for January 2011. He has also urged the Obama administration not to appear too supportive of the government led by President Goodluck Jonathan.
Jonathan was sworn in as president when his predecessor, Umaru Yar’Adua, died after a long period of illness in May 2010. He was hand-picked to be Yar’Adua’s running mate in the 2007 election, amid allegations of widespread vote-rigging.
Campbell urges the Obama administration to seek greater ties with Nigerian civil society, while warning of the possible negative political consequences if the United States is viewed as too supportive of the Abuja (Nigeria’s capital) government.
“The people of Nigeria distance themselves from government as much as they can. There is the risk that many of them will distance themselves from the United States if they perceive Washington to be an uncritical supporter of the Abuja status quo.”
Campbell maintains that “the Obama administration should take into greater account what the Nigerian government is doing domestically before embracing Abuja too warmly.”
Campbell, says: “Governance, let alone democracy, faces grievous, structural challenges in Nigeria,” adding: “Popular alienation and a fragmented establishment have contributed to Nigeria becoming one of the most religious and, at the same time, one of the most violent countries in the world.”
In his new book titled ‘Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink’ Campbell offers a history of Nigeria from colonialism through independence to the flawed elections in 2007, which undermined the credibility of the current government and left Nigeria’s conflicts unresolved.
“Ubiquitous patronage and corrupt behavior fueled by oil money is a root cause of Nigeria’s political and economic sclerosis,” explains Campbell, who is Senior Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). “The federal government has failed to provide basic security for its citizens and has lost its monopoly on violence, two basic attributes of a sovereign state.”
Notwithstanding the challenges, Campbell argues that Nigeria is important to the United States and the international community. He points to a history of shared interests, including efforts to promote African regional stability and conflict resolution, economic cooperation in the region’s petroleum resources, and tackling public health challenges, especially HIV/AIDS and malaria.
“Though the international community would pay a steep price for Nigerian state failure and the likely humanitarian calamity,” Campbell acknowledges that “it can do little except at the margins to prevent it.” He argues that state failure is not inevitable, but change must come from inside Nigeria. He encourages the Obama administration to “assist those in Nigeria working to establish a democratic culture,” in hope that a complete collapse of the state can be forestalled.
Campbell calls on the United States to employ a strategy of “soft diplomacy,” which includes “facilitating more exchanges and providing more grants to those actively working to create a democratic culture.” He encourages U.S. support of the National Assembly, the court system, and carefully vetted state governments that are practicing good governance through targeted assistance programs.
MODELLED AFTER THE U.S.
Nigeria is a Federal Republic modelled after the United States, comprising 36 states and its Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, with executive power exercised by the president and with overtones of the Westminster System model in the composition and management of the upper and lower houses of the bicameral legislature. The president presides as both Head of State and head of the national executive and is elected by popular vote to a maximum of two four-year terms.
The president’s power is checked by a Senate and a House of Representatives, which are combined in a bicameral body called the National Assembly. The Senate is a 109-seat body with three members from each state and one from the capital region of Abuja; members are elected by popular vote to four-year terms. The House contains 360 seats and the number of seats per state is determined by population.
The three largest and most influential ethnic groups in Nigeria are the Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba. In terms of religion Nigeria is roughly split half and half between Muslims and Christians with a very small minority who practice traditional religion.
GROWING ECONOMY
The importance of Nigeria lies in the fact that it is the eighth most populous country in the world, and the most populous country in the world in which the majority of the population is black. It is listed among the ‘Next Eleven’ economies, and is a member of the Commonwealth of Nations.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria is the third fastest growing economy in the world after China and India, as a result of the growth of the nation’s economy from 6.9 per cent in 2009 to 7.4 per cent in 2010.
Moreover, it is the third largest economy in Africa, the largest exporter of oil in Africa and a regional power that is also the hegemon in West Africa.
Several studies point to prevalent ethnocentrism, tribalism, religious persecution, and prebendalism — a term used for patrons using state resources in order to secure the loyalty of clients in the general population, and describing informal patron-client relationships that can reach from very high up in state structures down to individuals in say, small villages.
All these have played a significant role in Nigerian politics both prior and subsequent to independence in 1960. Kin-selective altruism has made its way into Nigerian politics and has spurned various attempts by tribalists to concentrate Federal power to a particular region of their interests.
Nationalism has also led to active secessionist movements such as the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) — a secessionist movement with the aim of securing the resurgence of the defunct state of Biafra from Nigeria — nationalist movements such as Oodua Peoples Congress, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta and a civil war.
Nigeria’s three largest ethnic groups — Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba — have maintained historical preeminence in Nigerian politics; competition amongst these three groups has fuelled corruption and graft.
Because of the above issues, Nigeria’s current political parties are pan-national and irreligious in character, though this does not preclude the continuing preeminence of the dominant ethnicities. The major political parties at present include the ruling People’s Democratic Party of Nigeria which maintains 223 seats in the House and 76 in the Senate (61.9 percent and 69.7 percent respectively).
The opposition All Nigeria People’s Party under the leadership of Muhammadu Buhari has 96 House seats and 27 in the Senate (26.6 percent and 24.7 percent). There are also about 20 other minor opposition parties registered.
The predecessor of the demised president Yar’Adua, Olusegun Obasanjo, acknowledged fraud and other electoral “lapses” in 2007 presidential election, but said the result reflected opinion polls. In a national television address he added that if Nigerians did not like the victory of his handpicked successor they would have an opportunity to vote again in four years.