Boko Haram has killed nearly 300 people so far this year, compared to only about 700 during the previous three years. Most of the violence has been in Kano, a northern, largely Moslem, city of nine million. In the last two weeks, half a dozen police stations and facilities have been destroyed in Kano. The police have suffered several hundred casualties (dead, wounded, deserters). The police in Kano, like the rest of Nigeria, are corrupt and incompetent. The public generally considers the police a public menace and the Boko Haram attacks are popular for that reason. But the cops do suppress some crime and maintain some order. Since the Boko Haram attacks, most police are staying off the streets. The only security forces you see on the streets are army patrol. The army is less corrupt than the police, but more violent. The criminals are taking advantage of the situation, causing civilians to be wary, and stay off the streets more often.
The violence in Kano, and breakdown in what little law and order there was, has caused a growing number of people to flee. Most of the refugees are Christians, a group Boko Haram has openly declared that it will attack. At least 10,000 have left this month, either to areas outside the city, or in the Christian south.
Christian clerics and politicians in the south are urging people to refrain from religious violence. In fact, there has not been much “revenge” violence in the south, as there usually is when there is another outbreak of anti-Christian violence in the north. As is the custom in most of the world, most of the religious violence is instigated by Moslems, who are obsessed with the idea that Islam is under attack. But most of the problems found in Moslem population (corruption, little education, poverty) are self-inflicted. Nearby Christian populations tend to be better educated, and thus wealthier. This is considered anti-Moslem and obviously the result of some Christian conspiracy against Islam.
Boko Haram has developed internal dissent and produced its first known splinter group. Calling themselves Ansaru (for Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan, or “Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa”). Ansaru objects to the many Moslems who are being killed by Boko Haram attacks. It is unclear how large Ansaru is, and how much violence within Boko Haram, if any, will result from the split. It is believed that there is considerably more strife between Boko Haram leaders, with many strong-willed men, each with an armed following, trying to control the entire movement. At the moment, Boko Haram is on a roll, and most of these disagreements are put aside. But with the appearance of Ansaru, that appears to be changing.