A Nigerian government amnesty offer to Niger Delta militants will not end the insurgence in the oil hub until concerns of injustice and under-development are tackled, activists and analysts warned.
Violence in the southern oil-producing hub of the world’s eight largest crude exporter has sharply cut output by more than 30 percent over the past three and a half years.
President Umaru Yar’Adua last month declared an unconditional pardon for the armed groups who say they are fighting for a greater share of the oil wealth. The amnesty offer remains open until October 4.
Joseph Evah of Ijaw Monitoring Group, an ethnic rights watchdog, said Yar’Adua’s amnesty to the rebels waging a so-called ‘oil war’ could “only amount to scratching the surface”.
“Amnesty is good, but it will take us nowhere if the fundamental issues are not addressed,” Evah said in the oil city of Warri.
“The key issues are justice and development.”
Attacks by armed groups on oil facilities in the Delta are shutting in hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude a day. Hundreds of oil workers have been kidnapped.
Kingsley Kuku, secretary of a government-appointed committee on peace and conflict resolution in the delta, says the armed struggle, kidnappings and oil thefts will die naturally if government can “jump-start genuine development in the region”.
“Nigeria has to be proactive and tackle the neglect of the Niger Delta head-on,” Kuku told AFP.
Urgent infrastructural development — roads, hospitals, provision of electricity and potable water, are just some of the issues locals have long complained about. In addition oil pollution, environmental degradation and youth joblessness need attention.
“The federal government has to stop paying lip-service to the development of the Niger Delta. Until this is done people will think Yar’Adua is insincere,” said Evah.
Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an analyst with Eurasia group, said Nigeria’s historical credibility problem in the delta is unlikely to help bolster the amnesty offer.
“Yar’Adua’s inconsistent policies towards the region — first trying reconciliation, then launching a military campaign, now offering amnesty — have not increased trust between the government and the Delta communities,” said Spio-Garbrah in a recent note on the amnesty offer.
He said this amnesty was likely to suffer the same fate as the 2004 one undermined by lack of long-term political and financial backing for the entire region.
Kuku recalled a similar amnesty offer to an ex-militant leader, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, by former president Olusegun Obasanjo in November 2004, breached with his arrest for treason a year later.
“Asari was arrested barely a year after a red carpet treatment in Abuja and tried for treason. It took the magnanimity of Yar’Adua to release him after he assumed power,” he said.
Kimse Okoko, ex-leader of Ijaw National Congress, an ethnic lobby group, said the continued deployment of troops from a special security force (JTF) in the region would not encourage militants to turn in their weapons.
“We are calling on the government to call the JTF to order and stop forthwith further bombardment of the communities to allow the heightened tension to subside,” he said.
“The continued presence of JTF makes nonsense of the offer of amnesty and the activities of the JTF are inimical to its workability,” he added.
The armed struggle in the oil-rich region has hurt Nigeria’s main export earner which rakes in more than 90 percent of its income.
According to a report by a leading environmental activist Ledum Mitee, Nigeria lost some 23.7 billion dollars to oil thefts and sabotage in the first nine months of 2008.
The state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) also paints a grim picture of the oil coffers.
The NNPC said monthly oil revenue this year dropped to around one billion dollars from an average of 2.2 billion dollars monthly in 2008.