Nigeria faces a season of uncertainty as it prepares for landmark elections in April with the political class mired in acrimonious power struggles, talk of impeachment and a constitutional crisis.
President Olusegun Obasanjo says preparations for the polls, which should mark the first democratic transition from one civilian government to another in Africa’s most populous country, are going smoothly.
However, critics say his efforts to stop Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, now a leading opposition candidate, and to influence who runs for other posts, are raising tensions.
“Obasanjo will do everything he can to stop Abubakar but we will do everything we can to resist,” said Usman Bugaje, a member of the House of Representatives who is close to the vice-president.
Bugaje said he feared the situation could deteriorate and give a pretext for Obasanjo, who has ruled Africa’s top oil producer since 1999, to postpone the polls.
For now, trouble is brewing in the National Assembly. When it reconvened this week after a long recess, a legislator proposed launching impeachment moves against Obasanjo.
The proposal was rejected on procedural grounds, but some MPs are still collecting pro-impeachment signatures.
On the face of it, any impeachment attempt would be based on a list of instances where parliamentarians say the president acted unconstitutionally. However, the real motivation is discontent among those who lost out during party primaries.
“The arrowheads of the move are those who believe they were unjustly treated during the primaries…They want to settle political scores,” said Farouk Lawan, an influential member of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
DISPUTED PRIMARIES
The PDP held primaries last month to choose candidates for president, state governors and national and state legislators.
Far from narrowing the field, the primaries caused widespread confusion, with unsuccessful candidates across the country alleging that the process was manipulated to favour others chosen by Obasanjo’s party chiefs.
Despite the return to democracy in 1999, rigging and intimidation remain standard practice in Nigerian politics.
Many legislators failed to win nomination for re-election and they are furious, but Lawan said impeachment would not win the necessary two-thirds majority in each house.
That is because the PDP has reversed the results of several primaries, so those who failed to win nomination are hoping that they might yet prevail. They are unwilling to antagonise the party and compromise their chances of success.
Another troublesome legacy of the primaries is the emergence of Umaru Yar’Adua as the PDP’s presidential candidate. The reclusive state governor won almost entirely on the strength of Obasanjo’s backing, and his disappointed rivals, who include some powerful governors, are lukewarm in their support for him.
This has raised concerns that, despite the PDP’s formidable machinery, victory may be hard to deliver.
The opposition parties are also in a state of flux. Similar controversies have arisen out of their primaries, while confusion reigns over a proposed opposition coalition.
The two biggest names are Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), a former army ruler, and vice-president Abubakar, flag bearer of the Action Congress (AC). The parties said last month they would unite behind one candidate.
Their efforts to do so have been overshadowed by Abubakar’s fierce struggle with the president.
Obasanjo used allegations of graft to exclude his deputy from the PDP primaries, after which Abubakar defected to the AC. The presidency argues that, by leaving the PDP, Abubakar has effectively resigned as vice-president, which he disputes.
The Court of Appeal said the matter raised “grave constitutional issues” and asked the Supreme Court to decide.
If it rules against Abubakar, he will lose his immunity from prosecution and could face arrest. If he wins, he may face new obstacles from the presidency. Both scenarios would cast doubt on the elections’ credibility.