LIBYA and Angola are set to overtake Nigeria as Africa�s largest oil producer due to the increasing insurgency in the oil producing region of Niger-Delta.
According to reports published by the Gulf Times on Friday, about 600,000 barrels per day already cut off from Nigerian oil production is set to increase as the April poll approaches.
According to the reports, Nigeria could lose its status as Africa�s largest oil producer if companies and workers decide it is to dangerous to operate in the volatile nation in the run up to elections in April.
�It will definitely get worse as politicians give arms to local youths,� said Thoko Kaime, Africa expert at the London-based Exclusive Analysis.
A fifth of Nigeria�s oil production capacity, or about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), has been shut down for the past year because of militants attacks on oil facilities.
Rebel groups have vowed to further disrupt output in the oil-rich Niger Delta in their fight for the neglected region to gain greater local control of oil wealth.
Nigeria�s Energy Minister, Edmund Daukoru, on Monday estimated February output to reach 2mn bpd. Analysts said fresh attacks could easily lower the country�s output and establish Libya, which pumped 1.7mn bpd last month, as Africa�s top oil producer.
Also, hot on Nigeria�s heels is Angola, the newest member of the oil producers group, OPEC, where output is rising fast and is expected to top 2mn bpd early next year.
�It�s very possible. It wouldn�t require much more from militants as low-tech attacks have already cut production by 20 per cent,� said Peter Pham, Africa security analyst at James Madison University in the US.
Analysts said the recent upsurge in the kidnapping of foreign oil workers could have the biggest long-term impact on Nigeria�s oil output.
�Kidnapping staff seems to be the pattern of preferred attacks rather than physically attacking oilfields,� said David Cowan, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
�If you�ve got a bunch of hostages, then you have a negotiating counter to get money out of the companies or the government,� he added.
More than 30 foreigners are being held by different armed groups in the oil-rich Niger Delta. Union groups have threatened to strike if the government and oil companies do not improve security for workers. A meeting between the unions and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo held last week.
�The biggest disruption to Nigeria�s oil industry could be the reluctance of foreign experts to come and work here,� said Nnamdi Obasi, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. Royal Dutch Shell, the top foreign oil producer in Nigeria, said earlier this month that it would take longer than expected to restore lost production.�