Nigeria faces a test of its young democracy on Saturday when it holds state elections the government has promised will break with a past of rigging and violence.
At stake are 36 governors’ posts and hundreds of state legislators’ seats. The conduct and results of the polls will give Nigerians an indication of what they can expect from the presidential election a week later.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and biggest oil producer, returned to democracy in 1999 after three decades of almost continuous army rule. There were elections that year and in 2003.
This month’s polls are viewed as a turning point in Nigerian politics because, for the first time since independence in 1960, one elected president is due to hand over to another.
The constitution limits the president and state governors to two terms in office, so President Olusegun Obasanjo must step down as must most of the 36 governors.
Gubernatorial polls hugely important in Nigeria
Governors control huge amounts of public funds and have enormous power in their states, making the April 14 gubernatorial polls as important in the eyes of many Nigerians as the April 21 presidential election.
Obasanjo has promised free, fair and credible elections. He has repeatedly condemned political violence and vote-rigging, practices which have undermined the credibility of Nigerian elections including the 2003 poll in which he won a second term.
Despite his assurances, many voters are suspicious of the political class and they fear intimidation.
“Elections are very dangerous in this country. You never know what can happen. Maybe you will go to vote and you will find thugs on the street. It’s better to stay at home with your children,” said Ada Ogidi, who works as a maid in the capital.
Voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, ghost voters
Civil society activists say many Nigerian politicians pay and arm unemployed youths to intimidate voters or opponents.
The Nigerian media have reported more than 70 deaths in clashes between such youths since November, although officials have not confirmed those figures.
Rigging has also been a feature of Nigerian elections, through the use of ghost voters, ballot stuffing, counterfeiting, and bribery of electoral officials to modify results.
Political parties have traded accusations of rigging and reports have appeared in newspapers of voter registration machines being found in the private homes of politicians, and of children being registered to vote.
Many political analysts are particularly suspicious of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which controls 28 out of 36 states and also enjoys powers of incumbency at federal level.
“The first set of elections on Saturday will be a gauge for what needs to be tightened in terms of rigging a week later,” said John Adeleke, an independent analyst based in Lagos.
“If the gubernatorials don’t go well for the PDP, deals will be done and whatever is necessary will be done to ensure that they get Yar’Adua into office,” he said, referring to the PDP’s presidential candidate, Umaru Yar’Adua.
Apart from uncertainty over violence and rigging, there are also question marks over the logistics of the elections.
The electoral body says it has registered more than 60 million voters and it has ballot papers and polling booths ready to be deployed across the nation for voting to start at 8 a.m. (0700 GMT) on Saturday.
But independent monitors dispute this. They say voter registration was shoddy, voters have not had a chance to verify whether their names were on the list, and no information has been provided on the location of polling stations.