Nigerian elections slammed as deeply flawed are deepening voter cynicism about corruption and contributing to intensified violence from gunmen targeting the oil industry, analysts say.
The vote rigging and violence that characterized last month’s polls in Africa’s largest oil producer have encouraged fighters to show off their strength � and bargaining power � to the new administration, analysts and militants said. They predict government officials, along with the oil industry, will be increasingly targeted as groups jockey for influence during the political transfer.
“There’s a ‘king is dead, long live the king’ syndrome,” said Ian Pilcher, the Nigeria country manager of the London-based security risk management company ArmorGroup. “It may be a statement of intent by the militants that … they are still relevant.”
President-elect Umaru Yar’Adua, the governing party candidate, is to be sworn-in May 29 along with a slate of new governors, most of them also from the ruling party. But local and international observers said the state polls on April 14 and the national vote on April 21 were not credible.
Nigeria’s main opposition party vowed not to recognize or cooperate with any government formed as a result of the election, challenge the results in the courts and seek a new vote. But with most challenges due to be heard before government-appointed tribunals, many say violence is their only recourse.
Nigeria generates tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues annually, but widespread corruption has resulted in falling living standards in the 50 years since oil exploration began.
Because of that, a new generation of frustrated and disenfranchised youth is looking for someone to blame, said 26-year-old Ogun Meschak.
“If they can just give us this thing,” said the unemployed student, pretending to hold a rifle, “I would just like to destroy this country.”
In the last three weeks in the oil-rich southern Delta region, unknown gunmen attempted to kidnap the vice president-elect before he cast his ballot, attacked a state governor’s convoy and briefly held a governor-elect’s mother.
Yet this increased pressure on the government does not mean relief for the oil industry. With severe restrictions in place and gangs occupied in rigging the elections, kidnappings of foreigners temporarily declined during the election period, but have since bounced back.
Nigeria’s crude provides 95 percent of government revenues, and oil workers are targeted by politicized militants and bandits alike. Protected by armed guards and herded into floodlit camps surrounded by barbed wire, foreign oil workers have been seeking refuge from the latest round of violence that has engulfed the Delta.
It’s not working. Of the 93 foreigners kidnapped so far this year, 26 have been seized since the elections. The pace is already well ahead of 2006, when more than 80 foreigners were seized in the region.
Most of the hostages are released unharmed and not all kidnappings are political. Their captors’ motivations range from collecting ransoms and protection money to labor disputes to demanding greater control of oil revenues.
The latest polls were meant to cement democracy in Nigeria with the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power since independence in 1960. But in the Delta, ballot boxes were stuffed or stolen, politicians murdered and the families of opposition candidates and activists targeted.
In many places, no elections were held at all.
Rolake Akinola, an analyst with London-based independent risk consultancy Control Risks Group, said the widespread irregularities meant few Nigerians felt they had a stake in the new government.
Now, politicians who feel they were robbed at the polls may “seek to destabilize the state,” she added. With oil companies increasingly moving offshore and reducing the numbers of foreign staff or restricting their movement, local and state government may become a new target.
Human rights lawyer Anyawkee Nsirimovu said armed groups are growing more powerful. Many of the militias were initially armed by local politicians to intimidate opponents and help rig elections, but Nsirimovu said the officials have created a Frankenstein that must be fed with ever increasing amounts of cash.
Youths like Meschak with legitimate grievances can easily be drawn into a tangled web of guns, politics and oil.
“They say, ‘Why can’t we help ourselves … when our so-called elected representatives are also stealing?'” Nsirimovu said.