Nigeria’s former leader Olusegun Obasanjo could be in for a tough time at the weekend when his influence on the politics of Nigeria will be put to the test at the ruling party annual convention.
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) convenes on Saturday in the administrative capital for a meeting to elect national leaders to steer the affairs of the party for the next four years.
Party members and analysts say the weekend assembly will be the greatest test of Obasanjo’s dominance on the politics of Africa’s largest oil producer and the continent’s most populous nation.
Credited for being Nigeria’s first military ruler to hand over to an elected civilian government in 1979, and to swing back to power as an elected civilian president, some 10 years later, Obasanjo allegedly still wields much influence on the politics of the country’s despite his stepping down from office nearly a year ago.
After his failed attempt at seeking a third term in office, he handpicked Umaru Musa Yar’Adua as the PDP’s candidate who went on to win the 2007 disputed elections.
Two of several other politicians he tried to foist on the nation before leaving power — Patricia Etteh and David Mark — have already been given the push.
Etteh was forced to resign as speaker of the house of representatives over a corruption scandal while Mark, who is the Senate chairman, recently had his election as senator for Benue state voided.
But moves are afoot to displace his cronies from the party’s national leadership and replace them with a new breed of leadership as the country battles to rid itself of its tainted image.
Nigeria, undoubtably one of Africa’s most important nations because of its oil wealth and population, has an unenviable reputation for corruption, rigged elections, democracy shortfalls, military rule and email scams.
“The convention is more of a battle between the forces on the side of Obasanjo and the new forces who want a complete break from the past and the independence of the party from Obasanjo,” said Shehu Sani, head of the Nigerian Civil Rights Congress.
It will mark “a battle between old horses who represent the interests of Obasanjo and are still in place to defend his legacy and new forces in the party who feel that with Obasanjo out of office, he should be out of power,” added Sani.
“Allowing him (Obasanjo) and his people to run the party will take us back to square one, it will take us back to 1999 (the military rule era),” said Muhammad Abubakar Rimi, a senior PDP member, former communications minister and ex-governor of Kano state.
If Obasanjo’s people retain control of the PDP, which runs the government, “Nigeria risks running into destruction, Nigeria will be finished,” warned Rimi in an interview.
The run-up to the convention has seen much jostling for backing among stalwarts. But the unaffected and mild-mannered President Umaru Yar’Adua, who is widely seen as Obasanjo’s creation, has played it safe and not openly taken sides.
Analysts say he took this stance to safeguard his integrity and to avoid being seen as either pro- or anti-Obasanjo.
“Obasanjo placed landmines before he left and the new president is crawling around the landmines so as not to step on them,” suggested Sani.
John Dara, an aspirant for the post of national secretary, told AFP: “We need to use this convention as an opportunity to restore credibility and strengthen democracy and give hope to the people of Nigeria that we can do things according to the rules we have set for ourselves.”
A political commentator with a local paper Donald Awoor said the upcoming meeting should restructure the PDP “to free it from the stronghold and firm grip of …Obasanjo to make it a truly democratic institution”.
And the defeat of pro-Obasanjo hopefuls “will be a milestone in the diminishing fortunes of the former president on the political landscape of Nigeria,” added Awoor.
“It will also mark an era of building political institutions that will operate in compliance with democratic tenets and ethos as against the garrison politics of Obasanjo,” he said.