Why foreign military intervention may be necessary in Nigeria– u.s. analysts

The council comprises analysts, academic and other experts in the U.S.

Presidency spokesman, Mr. Segun Adeniyi, refused to pick our correspondents call on Saturday and he did not respond to a text message on the issue.

Increase in the population of unemployed youths, growing availability of arms, climate change, declining agricultural production and religious extremism were seen as serious potential threats to Nigeria’s future peace and stability.

In a prognosis of Nigeria’s future contained in a 120-page report entitled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”, they predict an increasing likelihood of foreign military intervention to end the Niger Delta crisis and stabilise oil exports.

“Ethnic and political violence and criminal activity currently threaten a large portion of Nigeria’s oil production. State failure in the key energy producing country may require military intervention by outside powers to stabilise energy flows”, the report stated.

The observation is contained in part of the November 2008 document released by the NIC.

The report emphasised that serious internal conflict that was reminiscent of the Nigerian civil war “is not inconceivable” in Nigeria before 2025.

The report includes inputs from the Central Intelligence Agency and several other bodies that are active in analysing intelligence through networks that span the globe.

While the report also warned that the US’ dominance in world affairs would likely reduce as multi-polar power blocs comprising increasingly affluent countries such as India and China begin to assert more influence on global affairs.

For Nigeria, the document said threats of serious internal stability might result from long-existing but largely latent problems including religious extremism, youth unemployment, climate change and growing population.

“Unless employment conditions change dramatically in parlous youth-bulge states such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen, these countries will remain ripe for continued instability and state failure…

“In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend of Islam is likely to gain traction. Types of conflict we have not seen for a while could re-emerge…

“The populations of already parlous youth bulge states—such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—are projected to remain on rapid-growth trajectories. Pakistan’s and Nigeria’s populations are each projected to grow by about 55 million people…”

According to the authors of the report, rapid climate change and increasing rural-urban migration in Nigeria and 19 other countries will affect seriously agricultural production and “sows the seeds for social conflict”.

“The problem is that some of these are not small, geo-politically insignificant countries. Some—like Nigeria—we in the developed world rely on for needed resources.

“Because of the encroaching desertification in the north, the religious clash between Muslims and Christians is heating up. Another Biafra-like civil war—only this time along North-South lines—is not inconceivable,” it stated.

Predicting an increasing dominance of Islamic ideology in countries with Moslem population, the report expressed fears that radical Islamic beliefs of the Salafi doctrine would gain ascendance in Nigeria and other countries.

“In those countries that are likely to struggle with youth bulges and weak economic underpinnings—such as in Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Yemen—the radical Salafi trend is likely to gain traction…”

“The challenge of Islamic activism could produce a more intense backlash of Christian activism. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian struggle,” the report added.