President Goodluck Jonathan’s office wanted to make one thing clear about his potential candidacy in upcoming elections — but they may have succeeded in clarifying nothing at all.
“The truth is that the president has not said he will not run,” a statement from his office said last week amid intense speculation over the matter in the oil-rich nation, also Africa’s most populous country.
It continued: “Neither has he said he will.”
If all goes as planned, Nigeria is some five months away from presidential elections, and Jonathan, a zoologist who came into office in May after the death of his predecessor, has yet to say if he will take part.
For outsiders, it may seem like a given that he would run. He’s the incumbent from a party that has dominated Nigerian politics since the country returned to civilian rule in 1999.
He has pledged fair elections, which would be a major feat considering the history of ballot fraud and widespread corruption here.
But politics in this vast country, divided roughly in half between Christians and Muslims and with some 250 ethnic groups, is never so simple.
Jonathan faces deep disagreement within his own People’s Democratic Party over whether he should be their candidate, and observers say that has led him to keep a tight lid on his plans.
“It’s not clear at this point,” Abubakar Siddique Mohammed, a political science professor in the northern city of Zaria, said of whether the president will run. “He’s coming under extreme pressure from both sides.”
In some ways, Jonathan, a low-key leader rarely seen without his fedora, shouldn’t take it personally. The dispute over whether he should represent the PDP is rooted in regional rivalries.
The party has an unwritten policy of rotating its candidates between the north and south every two terms as a way of smoothing over the country’s divisions.
President Umaru Yar’Adua, a Muslim from the north, died before he finished his first term. Jonathan, a Christian from the oil-rich Niger Delta in the south who had been vice president, then took over.
Some argue another northerner should be chosen to complete what Yar’Adua started.
The party leadership has walked a careful line, saying Jonathan has the right to run, but declining to offer him its full backing while maintaining that the rotation policy remains in effect.
Analysts say Jonathan’s supporters have been working intensely behind the scenes to line up the necessary support.
Meanwhile, two northern politicians, former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida and ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar, have announced they will seek the ruling party’s nomination.
“One thing that is not in doubt is that he is going to contest,” Bayo Okunade, a political science professor at the University of Ibadan in the country’s southwest, said of whether Jonathan will declare.
“He will want the PDP to resolve some of the issues first.”
A former aide to Jonathan who resigned to form a support group for the president said he has no doubt he will run.
“Those peddling the rumour that Jonathan will not run are jesters,” the former aide said on condition of anonymity.
Support groups have plastered posters around the capital Abuja promoting Jonathan for 2011, and Okunade believes he will win the ballot. Others aren’t so sure.
Mohammed said he did not think Jonathan, who would be the first member of the minority Ijaw ethnic group to win a presidential vote, would come out on top if a fair election were held today.
He argues that his approach to the north has not been respectful enough and his base of support is too weak.
But Mohammed, who also heads the Centre for Democratic Development, Research and Training, is careful to note that the situation may change quickly, particularly if Jonathan declares and his campaign begins to take shape.
The two northern candidates seeking the ruling party’s nomination have significant support, but are also viewed extremely negatively by many due to a range of issues.
Those issues include corruption allegations and Babangida’s annulment of 1993 elections, which were widely viewed as fair.
“Look at these characters,” Okunade said of the former vice president and ex-military ruler, arguing that Nigerians were ready for a change. “Who are they?”