Politics not religion lie behind much of the violence in Nigeria in recent weeks, undermining President Goodluck Jonathan’s election campaign and raising the prospect of further unrest as polling day nears.
A wave of violence rocked Africa’s most populous nation and top oil exporter in the last week of 2010, heightening a climate of uncertainty ahead of what were already set to be the most fiercely contested elections for more than a decade.
A New Year’s Eve bomb at a popular market near an army barracks in the capital Abuja killed four people a week after a series of co-ordinated blasts and subsequent clashes killed 80 in the central city of Jos. [ID:nLDE70101O]
An Islamist sect from the far northeast, Boko Haram, claimed the Jos strikes but it would be the first time it has staged such a large attack outside its home base and local politicians and security officials doubt it masterminded them.
No claim has been made for the Abuja blast and investigators have said it is too early to apportion blame. But many have concluded the violence is being orchestrated to create the impression that Jonathan, who faces ruling party primaries next Thursday, does not have a firm enough grip on power.
“Our country was viciously attacked on both Christmas and New Year’s eves by terrorists who want to manipulate the fate of Nigeria as we approach an epochal year,” Jonathan said in a message published on his Facebook page.
“It is the intention of those behind the blast to get government and Nigerians to enter into panic mode,” he said.
Rivals including ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Jonathan’s main challenger for the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket, have accused him of lacking the political strength to guarantee national security.
“I don’t think the president and his administration are serious about the internal security problem in Nigeria that is why we have these problems,” Abubakar said last weekend at an event in the northern city of Bauchi.
Former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, a presidential aspirant of the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), was quoted on Wednesday as saying the insecurity was the result of a “failure of leadership … incompetence, mismanagement”.
“The bombs were targeted at undermining the ability of the present government to adequately provide security for citizens, making a political statement,” said Kayode Akindele, a director at Lagos-based consultancy Greengate Strategic Partners.
ELECTORAL VIOLENCE
Nigeria is a generally peaceful nation, roughly divided between a mostly-Muslim north and largely-Christian south, but ethnic and religious rivalries bubble under the surface and weapons flow in relatively easily over its vast porous borders.
Regional rivalries are colouring the run-up to the elections, with Jonathan’s candidacy divisive because it disrupts a pact in the ruling party that the presidency should alternate between north and south every two terms.
Jonathan, a southerner, inherited the presidency when his predecessor Umaru Yar’Adua, a northerner, died last year during his first term. Many northern politicians say the north must be allowed to complete what would have been his second term.
Some groups such as Boko Haram, which wants a wider implementation of Sharia (Islamic law) across the country, attempt to portray Nigeria as a religiously divided nation.
But politics and poverty not religious ideology lie at the heart of much of the unrest. Christians and Muslims live side by side in all the main cities, and three of the six states in the nominally Christian southwest are governed by Muslim governors.
“Whoever was behind the bombings clearly wants it to look like Jonathan isn’t the man for the job, which is unfair,” said John Adeleke, a Lagos-based business consultant.
A failure by Jonathan to win the primaries could provoke a backlash in his volatile home region, the Niger Delta, where years of attacks by militant groups shut down a large chunk of the OPEC member’s oil production before an amnesty in 2009.
Home-made bombs hit a political rally in the Niger Delta on Dec. 29 and the local office of the electoral commission was vandalised this week ahead of a re-run of a governorship election in Delta state due on Thursday.
With the presidential race so closely fought, some analysts say the climate of insecurity could persuade those powerbrokers who have not yet decided whom to back to conclude that Jonathan is too weak and swing away from him.
Others say that in a political system based on patronage, the power of incumbency — which confers the ability to award juicy government contracts — will always win through.
“I have a feeling the delegates in the primaries will be taking into account other considerations than security. Issues of north-south divide and graft come into play,” said Bismarck Rewane, head of Lagos-based consultancy Financial Derivatives.
All eyes will be on the Jan. 13 PDP primaries. Should Jonathan win, his northern rival could shift to an opposition party, turning the April 9 election into a contest between north and south and robbing the PDP of its usual assurance of victory.
“When there is violence, the public will be looking for a strong, decisive leader, and if Jonathan is fighting against a consensus northern candidate in the general election, it could work out badly for him,” Rewane said.