The final votes are still being tallied but already it would appear that Nigeria has held the most credible presidential election in its history. The contrast between the debacle of 2007 and the relatively orderly process which unfolded in 2011 could not be sharper.
Then, even the winning candidate, Umaru Yar’Adua, was embarrassed by the blatant levels of corruption, intimidation, and voter fraud which propelled him to office. This time round, Africa’s largest democracy has begun to restore its battered reputation.
What made the difference? First, there has been honest and competent leadership at the top. Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was completely discredited in 2007 but has since been overhauled and placed under the chairmanship of a well-respected academic noted for his integrity. Important changes were made to voting procedures which closed the door to some of the most common types of fraud.
In previous elections, ballots boxes were taken from the polling booths to distribution centers for counting. Many would go missing on the way. This time, counting was done at the polling stations themselves and voters were encouraged to stick around after casting their vote in order to observe the process.
Civil society groups have also made a big contribution to ensuring that the 2011 vote proceeded smoothly. They have been active, well-organized, and have used technology in innovative ways to monitor the polls, map the results, and record allegations of misconduct. They have also done a particularly good job of mobilizing young people to participate in the elections.
While the overall picture is encouraging, it is important not to gloss over some troubling elements. The margin of victory by the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was suspiciously high in some areas, topping 99 percent in five states. Allegations of voting irregularities have trickled in from some areas and more are bound to emerge in the coming days. There were isolated outbreaks of violence, including the bombing of an INEC office and a police convoy in Borno state, in the volatile north-east.
A critical challenge in the coming days will be to persuade supporters of the losing side to respect the outcome of the vote.
Nigeria is polarized along regional, ethnic, and religious lines and the election results illuminate these divides: the south voted overwhelmingly PDP while the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) swept the north.
Nigerian politics is a zero-sum game; the winner takes the spoils, the loser gets nothing at all. For many northerners, Goodluck Jonathan’s victory, by fair means or foul, banishes them to the political wilderness for another four years. The violent protests which greeted the result in a string of northern towns and cities show that northerners are only too aware of this fact.
The response of their favored candidate, Muhammadu Buhari will be instrumental in either defusing or inflaming tensions. Before the election, Buhari vowed that he would not seek to overturn the result in the courts but early indications suggest he may be tempted to follow the lead of other defeated candidates in recent African elections by questioning the validity of the outcome.
All eyes now turn to the final installment of Nigeria’s electoral marathon, the elections for state governors, due to take place next week. Nigeria’s 36 governors wield enormous power and control large budgets. The high stakes involved mean that these contests tend to be a magnet for fraud and misconduct. Nigeria’s democratic credentials may have been strengthened this past weekend but they will face a stern test in the days ahead.
By Richard Downie
Note: Richard Downie is the Deputy Director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.