Editorials Opinion and Analysis
Keeping Violence in Check with Patronage
Stratfor: November 2010
Summary
Militants in Nigeria’s Delta region have resumed attacks in the previous two weeks. In response, the Nigerian government has ended a substantial part of its policy of amnesty toward the militants. Despite these developments, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan should be able to keep the violence in check as he pursues re-election.
Analysis
Nigerian militant group the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) claimed responsibility late Nov. 15 for the Nov. 14 kidnapping of eight Nigerian oil workers from an ExxonMobil facility off the coast of Akwa Ibom state.
The incident follows government moves against MEND that suggest an amnesty period is over. Even so, violence is likely to remain under control as a result of the Nigerian president’s re-election bid.
Renewed MEND Attacks and an End to Amnesty
The Nov. 14 kidnappings follow a similar incident Nov. 8 in which MEND kidnapped at least five expatriate workers whom they continue to hold hostage. That incident occurred at an oil rig operated by British exploration company Afren about 11 kilometers (7 miles) offshore.
The uptick in militant activity in the Niger Delta motivated Nigerian armed forces Chief of Staff Gen. Oluseyi Petinrin to announced Nov. 13 that the government will carry out raids in the creeks of the Niger Delta against criminal gangs. A new anti-terrorist task force will be launched in addition to another paramilitary unit known as the Joint Task Force (JTF), signaling an end to the government’s amnesty policy toward MEND. The force will be deployed in the Niger Delta and in the country’s south-west region, where it will combat kidnapping.
MEND alleged in its Nov. 15 claim of responsibility for the ExxonMobil oil rig attack that the JTF had already begun this campaign, a charge the Nigerian military denied. The MEND statement said that in a Nov. 15 assault on a militant camp in Rivers state — where the group says the Afren hostages are being held — JTF rockets landed so close to the expatriates that they had to be relocated for their own safety.
The kidnappings confirm that MEND has new operational commanders within the Niger Delta, though they were not named. In previous operations, especially when MEND was at its peak during the 2009 troubles, the group named individual commanders following attacks. MEND has long stated that its commanders are replaceable, and it has warned that the government’s amnesty program, during which many former unit commanders surrendered themselves and their weapons in exchange for government patronage in Abuja and the oil-producing region, and operations against MEND are futile.
Militant leaders, such as John Togo and the so-called “Ju-Ju,” have in fact seen their previous bosses, including General Boyloaf, Farah Dagogo and Government Tompolo, receive significant offices and payoffs via Abuja’s amnesty program. The lieutenants-turned-generals have criticized their former commanders and former political bosses for neglecting their interests.
An Abundance of Grievances in the Delta
The two recent MEND kidnapping attacks took place as chief MEND leader Henry Okah remains in jail in Johannesburg on charges of complicity in the Oct. 1 car bombings in the Nigerian capital. At the same time, Henry’s brother, Charles — believed until recently to be a MEND spokesman who used the pseudonym Jomo Gbomo — has been in detention since the group’s Oct. 15 threat of fresh attacks in Abuja. MEND continues to issue e-mail statements using the name Jomo Gbomo, but they are sent from a new e-mail address, and the unidentified spokesman will not respond to queries — a change from previous practice — likely due to heightened operational security concerns sparked by Charles Okah’s mid-October arrest.
Nov. 16 also saw the announcement of the creation of a new militant group, the Niger Delta Liberation Front, led by a former MEND general named John Togo. The group’s spokesman, Captain Mark Anthony, told Nigerian media it was composed of nine former MEND commanders and that its struggle against oil companies in the region is part of a struggle against a deceitful Nigerian government. This anti-government threat is not unusual: Militant groups in the Niger Delta often are motivated by a desire for money as well as a desire to shape the region’s and nation’s political debate.
There is no shortage of political grievances capable of triggering renewed kidnappings and militant activity in the Niger Delta. The country is gearing up for national elections likely to be held in April 2011. The candidates in that election largely will be determined by December, when the ruling People’s Democratic Party is set to hold its leadership convention. It remains unresolved whether incumbent governors in the Niger Delta, who are kingmakers at the state and local levels, enjoy federal government support for their re-election.
The Power of Patronage
Holding office in Nigeria is a winner-take-all proposition in that officeholders, especially in the Niger Delta, enjoy patronage and powers over financial resources unparalleled elsewhere in the country. Hiring a new militant gang to extort ransom money as well as to demand national and state-level attention is a tried and true means governors use to ensure re-election and thus their hold on oil-producing states.
However, political pressure from the office of President Goodluck Jonathan, an ethnic Ijaw from the Niger Delta and former governor of Bayelsa state, will counteract such tendencies, preventing conflict from spiraling upward and significantly disrupting oil production. Jonathan’s aim is to advance his presidential candidacy. He has campaigned on how his oversight of the amnesty program has brought stability to the Niger Delta.
His connections in the Niger Delta leave him in something of an awkward position, however. While his previous position as governor of Bayelsa state compelled him to defend Niger Delta interests, giving him close ties to the region’s militants, his current position compels him to distribute patronage throughout the country’s six subregions. Winning over rival politicians and other regions of the country hostile to his candidacy will only be possible if he can manage tensions in the Niger Delta to avoid disruptions to oil production and then redistribute the region’s oil revenues throughout the rest of the country. Militant attacks will occur, but via the power of patronage, Jonathan should be able to limit their damage as he pursues re-election.
